NFSI Compact, evidence-based cost/benefit scenario for ARUD Roll-out Canada wide
Bottom line
One-time sticker price @ $199/unit for every licensed gun owner in Canada (≈2.43M people) → initial outlay ≈ $482.7 million. RCMP
Illustrative annual savings from fewer firearm incidents (healthcare + policing + counselling + productivity + legal): roughly $50M – $735M per year depending on how many incidents are averted and which cost assumptions you use (see scenarios below). Statistics Canada+1
Net: under plausible moderate/optimistic effectiveness assumptions the program would likely pay back the initial federal investment within a few years when you include healthcare, policing, productivity and legal savings and of course it also prevents deaths, family trauma, and long-term social costs that are hard to fully monetize. Statistics Canada+1
Key baseline facts used
Licensed gun owners (PAL holders) in Canada: ~2.43 million (RCMP/Commissioner of Firearms report). — used to compute the giveaway cost. RCMP
Police-reported firearm-related violent incidents (2023): ≈14,416 incidents (latest StatsCan figure). This is the sort of pool ARUD could reduce by preventing thefts/unauthorised access and enabling faster recovery. Statistics Canada
Suicide context: Canada had ~4,447 total suicide deaths in 2023; firearms account for a meaningful share of firearm-related deaths and suicide is the majority of firearm fatalities in Canada. (Prevention of firearm access can therefore strongly affect suicide risk.) Health Infobase+1
Per-case healthcare cost references: recent studies show non-fatal firearm injury 1-year healthcare costs in Canada on the order of ~$8,825 (mean for “powdered” gun injuries), while justice/health reviews highlight much larger lifetime/total costs for serious gunshot survivors in some estimates. Use a range in models. PMC+1
Exact arithmetic
Licensed owners = 2,425,627 (RCMP figure used). RCMP
Unit price = $199.
Total = 2,425,627 × 199 = 2,425,627×(200 − 1) = 485,125,400 − 2,425,627 = $482,699,773 (one-time initial distribution cost).
Modeled annual trickle-down savings (method + assumptions)
Conservative → optimistic scenarios because ARUD effectiveness at scale is an assumption (device activation, owner behaviour, police workflows, adoption). For each scenario I estimate how many incidents (and suicides/non-fatal injuries) might be avoided and then multiply by plausible per-case cost ranges.
Baseline numbers used
Firearm incidents (police-reported): 14,416 / year. Statistics Canada
Estimated firearm suicides (approximate): I used public health suicide totals (4,447 suicides in 2023) and typical shares for firearms; firearm suicides are on the order of ~700–800 / year in recent years (this is consistent with Canadian public health analyses). Health Infobase+1
Per-case cost ranges (illustrative)
Low-end (direct healthcare + ambulance + ED): ~$8k – $15k per non-fatal firearm injury (1-year healthcare & immediate system costs). PMC
High-end (serious gunshot survivor = lifetime/long-term costs including long hospital stays, rehab, productivity losses, legal/correction costs): ~$150k+ per serious survivor (some national studies cite very large per-survivor burdens). Ministère de la Justice
Policing/legal/court per incident varies widely; for a conservative bounding I used $5k–$30k per incident (police time, investigations, courts, victim services). (These are conservative illustrative ranges; provincial studies show the combined societal cost per violent firearm incident can be much larger when you add lost productivity and value of life.) Frontiers
Scenarios — annual avoided incidents & dollar savings (illustrative)
Conservative: ARUD prevents 10% of firearm incidents (theft/unauthorised access → fewer crimes & injuries).
Moderate: prevents 30%.
Optimistic: prevents 60% (high adoption + integration with police/insurer incentives).
Step A incidents avoided / year
Conservative: 14,416 × 10% = 1,442 incidents avoided.
Moderate: 14,416 × 30% = 4,325 incidents avoided.
Optimistic: 14,416 × 60% = 8,650 incidents avoided. Statistics Canada
Step B dollar savings ranges
For each avoided incident I combine a low and a high per-incident savings:
Low per-incident saving estimate: healthcare + ambulance + modest policing/legal = ~$12,000. PMC
High per-incident saving estimate: serious survivor / full societal cost = ~$170,000 (healthcare + lifetime productivity + legal + long-term supports), using Justice Canada / provincial study ranges. Ministère de la Justice+1
Now multiply:
Conservative (1,442 avoided):
Low estimate: 1,442 × $12,000 ≈ $17.3M / year.
High estimate: 1,442 × $170,000 ≈ $245.1M / year.
Moderate (4,325 avoided):
Low: 4,325 × $12,000 ≈ $51.9M / year.
High: 4,325 × $170,000 ≈ $735.3M / year.
Optimistic (8,650 avoided):
Low: 8,650 × $12,000 ≈ $103.8M / year.
High: 8,650 × $170,000 ≈ $1.47B / year.
Interpretation: even the conservative low-estimate annual saving (~$17M) partially offsets the $482.7M rollout; the moderate high-estimate produces very large savings that quickly exceed the initial spend. The true value will sit somewhere in these ranges and depends on ARUD’s real-world reduction of theft/unauthorised access and how many incidents would have otherwise become costly hospitalizations, prosecutions, or long-term disability.
Other non-monetary (but high value) benefits
Lives saved and avoided deaths by suicide. Even modest reductions in firearm access at moments of crisis can prevent suicides; each prevented death avoids immeasurable personal and family trauma plus downstream mental-health and bereavement costs. (Canada’s public health data show suicide is the majority of firearm deaths.) Government of Canada+1
Faster evidence capture → higher recovery & prosecution rates. ARUD’s real-time location and AV evidence can shorten time-to-recovery and strengthen criminal prosecutions, deterring theft rings and repeat offenders. Frontiers
Reduced pressure on emergency departments & trauma centres. Fewer severe gunshot cases free’s capacity for other urgent care. PMC
Economic benefits not fully captured in single-year accounting: longer-term productivity, reduced disability claims, lower victim counselling costs, and better mental-health outcomes for families. Frontiers
Political & social co-benefits: a federal giveaway frames the program as harm-reduction (appeals across political lines), accelerates uptake (compared to voluntary market adoption), and could be paired with insurer discounts and retailer activation incentives to lock in behaviour change.
Policy design notes (to maximize ROI)
Targeted rollout + incentives: start with higher-risk cohorts (urban hot-spots, recent theft victims, retailers) to maximize early recoveries and evidence to show effectiveness. Then scale to all PAL holders. This raises cost-effectiveness vs an untargeted universal giveaway. Statistics Canada
Insurer & retailer cost-share: partnering with insurers (premium discounts) or retailers (device bundled at point of sale) can reduce net federal cost while driving activation.
Integration with police 24/7 intake & evidence handling: ensure law-enforcement can rapidly act on ARUD alerts — otherwise the device's recovery advantage is lost.
Robust privacy & owner-control design: privacy protections and owner activation controls will increase public and political acceptability (essential for uptake).
Rigorous evaluation: pilot + randomized rollout to measure real reductions in thefts, suicides, recoveries, and cost savings produce the evidence to scale up.
Caveats & uncertainties
The dollar estimates above are illustrative and rest on: (a) ARUD effectiveness at reducing theft/unauthorised access, (b) rates at which avoided incidents would have led to costly hospitalizations or long legal processes, and (c) per-case cost assumptions which vary by province and by case severity. I used published Canadian baselines where available (StatsCan incidents, RCMP licence counts, peer-reviewed studies on healthcare costs), but final program business cases should commission a provincial cost breakdown and pilot evaluation to refine the numbers. RCMP+2Statistics Canada+2
Key sources (most load bearing)
RCMP / Commissioner of Firearms licensed firearm holders (~2.43M). RCMP
Statistics Canada — firearm-related incidents (14,416 incidents in 2023). Statistics Canada
Health Infobase / Public Health Canada suicide totals and context. Health Infobase
De Oliveira et al. mean 1-year healthcare costs for firearm injury survivors (~$8,825 figure). PMC
Provincial / academic costing papers (e.g., British Columbia study) show total societal costs and the magnitude of productivity and long-term losses from firearm violence. Frontiers
